Climate Change and Global Food Production with David Battisti

By the end of the century it is very likely that throughout the tropics and subtropics the season averaged growing temperature will exceed the highest temperature ever recorded. By 2050, the increase in the climatological temperature alone will cause a 20% reduction in the yield of all the major grains (maize, wheat, rice and soybean). We present results that show year-to-year volatility in maize (and likely soybean) production will likely double in all the midlatitude breadbasket countries, even with no change in the statistics of the weather. We present a model of yield loss due to pests that suggests by 2050, warming will increase the global yield losses to pests by 20-50%, with the  greatest relative losses also in the midlatitudes. Heat stress on outdoor workers will be increasingly problematic for food production in the tropics. Heat stresses on the major crops will add to volatility to global food production and prices, and compound the already significant challenges of achieving global food security in the face of rising food demand associated with population growth and economic development.

Speaker: David Battisti, University of Washington
Jan. 18, 4:30-5:30 p.m.
Mandella Auditorium, FedEx Global Education Center