New Research: Electrifying NYC’s trucks and buses would save $2.4 billion in health costs and prevent hundreds of deaths
January 16, 2025
A new study completed by researchers at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Boston University, and Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) on the health benefits of electrifying New York City’s truck and bus fleets, recently found full electrification would save $2.4 billion in health costs and prevent 248 deaths, among other benefits. These results underscore the importance of actions – like the Advanced Clean Truck (ACT) rule and others – as an opportunity for New York to lead on health and climate progress in the face of renewed pushback at the federal level.
This research comes as New York state legislators are weighing whether to introduce a bill that would delay implementation of the state’s ACT rule, which requires truck and bus manufacturers to gradually produce and sell an increasing percentage of zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs). Check out more findings and quotes from experts and community groups below and view the full study here.
What are the key findings?
Full electrification of MHDVs in NYC by 2040 would annually:
- Save $2.4 billion in health costs
- Prevent 248 deaths
- Prevent 173 childhood asthma emergency department visits
- Avoid 205 new pediatric asthma cases
- Prevent over 52,000 pediatric asthma exacerbations
- Even more encouraging is that achieving just half of these benefits is possible if new MHDV sales are electric by 2040.
- Nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) reductions alone accounted for 85% of mortality benefits and 97% of asthma emergency department visit benefits.
- 40% of the census tracts with the worst air pollution would see substantial benefits (at least 30% reduction in total NO₂ pollution).
- These results are relevant to at least a dozen other U.S. states and cities that are considering measures to electrify their MHDVs.
How much do MHDVs contribute to New York’s emissions?
At least 1 million MHDVs are on roads across New York state, travelling a collective 17 billion miles annually in 2020. In New York City, traffic is a major source of health harming air pollution, accounting for 14% of PM2.5 and 28% of NOx emissions. Heavy-duty diesel vehicles make up just 6% of vehicle activity in the city but contribute more than half of tailpipe PM2.5 and NOx emissions. They are also responsible for about a quarter of all on-road vehicle climate emissions in the state.
Electrification of MHDVs in New York: Where we’re at
In 2021, New York adopted the ACT rule, requiring manufacturers to invest in, produce and sell an increasing percentage of zero-emission trucks starting with the 2025 model year through 2035. However, there has been a concerted effort across several states to delay the program’s start. Such a delay would disrupt the adoption timeline and postpone essential health benefits to New York residents, as our research shows. New York must stand firm and proceed with implementation this year.
What are the experts saying?
EDF Senior Health Scientist, and co-author on the study, Ananya Roy, emphasized the importance of the findings. “This study makes visible how electrifying New York City’s trucks and buses could improve public health, clean air and address climate emissions especially in communities that have historically borne the heaviest burden of air pollution.”
Jonathan Buonocore, Assistant Professor of Environmental Health at Boston University and co-author, added “This research shows the serious health benefits that would result from electrification of buses and trucks traveling in New York City. It also shows the capabilities of this advanced high-resolution modeling in understanding the important local environmental justice benefits of policies like these, and the capacity for these tools to be used in designing health and environmental justice-forward policies.”
Co-author Sarav Arunachalam, Research Professor at UNC-Chapel Hill’s Institute for the Environment, Center for Environmental Modeling for Policy Development, noted both short- and long- term benefits. “Electrifying the medium and heavy-duty trucks sector in a large city like New York is a win-win situation for both climate and air quality. Besides helping meet some of the goals under the NYC Mayor’s 80×50 initiative earlier by 2040 itself, the air quality health benefits as quantified by our study are rather substantial and will help improve the health of the most vulnerable communities in NYC. The climate benefits of such an electrification plan on the region and the planet may be long term, but the health benefits to NYC citizens are immediate as soon as the trucks are electrified.”
What are community leaders saying?
“The South Bronx is an epicenter of environmental injustice, primarily rooted in operations and infrastructure that see many thousands of MHDVs jam our streets and slice through our communities. This has resulted in an asthma crisis and a range of other poor health outcomes, diminishing our quality of life and rippling across generations.” said Arif Ullah, Executive Director of South Bronx Unite. “The findings of EDF’s research provide an irrefutable case for the dire need for electrification, particularly in communities like the South Bronx, and it should serve as a clarion call to policy makers to meaningfully push for electrification and charging infrastructure immediately. Nothing less than our health and lives are at risk.”
“NYC-EJA has long advocated for vehicle electrification due to the expected health and environmental benefits, so it is encouraging to see more research support this. We have long known that the historic discriminatory siting of pollution-causing infrastructure, including highways, warehouses, and bus depots, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are disproportionately concentrated in low-income, communities of color,” said Eddie Bautista, the Executive Director of the New York City Environmental Justice Alliance. “This analysis exemplifies what we can expect to see when we accomplish our goals to electrify the transportation sector as we work to meet our climate mandates.”
Institute for the Environment expert Sarav Arunachalam and EDF experts, Ananya Roy and Veronica Southerland, are available for interviews. Please reach out if you’d like to speak with them or to be connected with a partner.
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